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 Articles The latest rumors and gossip from Wall Street, investment media and the trading floors.
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 Articles Comments, insights, analysis and opinions on the investment markets, indices, sectors and charts.
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Money Rumor Mill
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Written by By Jeff Clark, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report
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Monday, 08 March 2010
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In a recent conversation with a fellow gold analyst, he was emphatic that the price one pays for physical gold should be ignored. “What’s far more important,” he insisted, “is how many ounces I own in relation to the total value of my assets.” Building a core position in gold bullion is a smart goal, to be sure, and a strategy Casey Research has been advising for years. However, ignoring the price you pay for gold could be seen as foolhardy; sure, it’s insurance, but isn’t price part of the consideration when you shop for insurance? So, who’s right? The World Gold Council just released their 2009 annual report on gold trends. From the densely populated pages of interesting data, there’s one compelling tidbit I gleaned that may shed some light on the buying behavior of gold investors.
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Market Analysis & Insights
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Written by Marc Courtenay
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Monday, 08 March 2010
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What happens next with the U.S. and Emerging International Stock Markets? In the U.S., today looked like an old automobile running out of gas. Volume was anemic, and the "conviction" that we would anticipate for a test of the January 2010 market highs just wasn't there. Another interesting element is that volatility as measured by the VIX is shrinking like an ice cube in the hot summer sun. As Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research at the Schaeffer organization pointed out over the weekend: "To say that the S&P 500 Index's (SPX) 20-day historical volatility has retreated would be an understatement, as it has actually plunged , from 19.76 to the current reading of 11.56. During this period, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) has declined from 20.02 to its Friday close of 17.69." It most certainly declined more today.
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Market Analysis & Insights
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Written by Marc Courtenay
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Saturday, 06 March 2010
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Friday's strong rally was anticipated by our team and gave us a nice chance to take some profits off the table. Technically, the markets are into the "oversold" zone, and it wouldn't surprise us to see a short-term pullback from this point. The report below by Rocky White, Senior Quantitative Analyst at Schaeffer Research is so interesting. From my perspective it lends more support that the stock markets are "carefully orchestrated" by some powerfully entities that not only "make" the market by know how and when to "move" the market to carry out their objectives. If you, as an investor, really want to "wake up and smell the coffee", go to http://www.bearfactsspecialistreport.com/ If you go to the bottom of the page you see all the informational sections, special reports and supportive charts that makes a strong case about "stock market reality" that we can't afford to overlook. Now let's take a look at Rocky's report which came out last week:
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John Townsend
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Written by John Townsend
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Thursday, 04 March 2010
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When the tech bubble burst in 2000, Greenspan tried to “fix” the problem by cutting rates and printing money. Fix the problem he did … well sort of! What Greenspan did was create two new bubbles in the credit and real estate markets to replace the tech bubble that had burst. Millions of jobs were created in these two industries. Much needed jobs to replace the ones lost as the tech boom came to an end. I think we will all admit it was one heck of a party, but like all good parties there’s a price to pay. The Hangover!
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Market Analysis & Insights
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Written by Marc Courtenay
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Thursday, 04 March 2010
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First let's look at today's "excuses" for why the stock markets are faltering, why volume is so low, and why there is so much uncertainty...which makes me wonder..."Is the stock marekt preparing to 'CLIMB A WALL OF PROVERBIAL WORRY'?" I noticed that the Associated Press was spinning the news with a certain slant, although very much the way they perceive it: NEW YORK (AP) -- "Stocks clung to a tight range Thursday after an unexpected drop in pending home sales raised new concern about the economy. "Major indexes were little changed in afternoon trading following the National Association of Realtors' report that its index of home sales agreements fell 7.6 percent in January from December. Contracts fell to the lowest level since April. "The drop in the number of buyers of previously occupied homes dampened some of the enthusiasm about better retail sales numbers. Macy's Inc., Limited Brands Inc. and The Wet Seal Inc. all posted monthly sales that topped analysts' expectations. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. raised its dividend 11 percent."
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Money Rumor Mill
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Written by Marc Courtenay
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Wednesday, 03 March 2010
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When I consider whether a stock or a company is worth buying there are performance ratios that I like to consider, including: Price-to-earning, Price-to-sales, Price-to-Book and Enterprise Value-to Revenue. There's also been great merit in looking at the company's balance sheet and cash flow statement. I want to know how much total debt they have, what their total cash flow is, what's their operating cash flow, and the levered free cash flow number. But the question we all have to ask ourselves is: "Are these ratios and figures reliable?" Gross operating margins? Earnings per share? Are they manipulated, exaggerated and a dependable metric for understanding the financial health of the company and the value of the stock?
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Market Analysis & Insights
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Written by Marc Courtenay
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Tuesday, 02 March 2010
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"50 DAY AVERAGES ARE EXCEEDED ... The ability of major U.S. stock indexes to rally back above their 50-day moving averages has improved the market's short-term trend picture." That's the latest message from John Murphy at The StockCharts.com. The one year -chart below of the S&P 500 is an overall pretty picture, and shows confirmation of a rally from the MACD which has stayed above its Signal line. Volume has still been tame, which tells me that the "herd" hasn't caught on to this rally yet. Other indicators are telling us that this rally has some short-term staying power.
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Money Rumor Mill
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Written by Marc Courtenay
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Monday, 01 March 2010
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A "short-squeeze" is most interesting to define and a remarkable factor to consider in the world of investing What Does Short Squeeze Mean? A situation in which a lack of supply and an excess demand for a traded stock forces the price upward. It can have the same effect on a market like a giant hand powerfully squeezing a tube of toothpaste. Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com explains Short Squeeze:"Short squeezes occur more often in smaller cap stocks with small floats." If a stock [or a group of stocks like the S&P 500] starts to rise rapidly, the trend may continue to escalate because the short sellers will likely want out. For example, say a stock rises 15% in one day, those with short positions may be forced to liquidate and cover their position by purchasing the stock. If enough short sellers buy back the stock, the price is pushed even higher. Through the use of Futures Contracts, commercial and non-commercial traders can "short" the entire S&P 500 and according to the Committment of Traders report, that's exactly what has happened recently.
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Market Analysis & Insights
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Written by Chris Vermeulen
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Sunday, 28 February 2010
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Three weeks ago on February 5th, we saw an extremely high level of fear in the market with selling vs. buying volume at a 9:1 ratio. We note that in 2009 this extreme level of fear occurred at the bottom of each significant pullback. Since this panic selling low in February 2010 we have seen stocks and commodities work their way higher, which we expected. Overall the broad market looks as though it’s trying to make a move higher.
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Market Analysis & Insights
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Written by By Rocky White, Senior Quantitative Analyst
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Saturday, 27 February 2010
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We thank Rocky White, Senior Quantitative Analyst at, http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/ for sharing this info with us. It came to our attention back around Feb.16th, but it helps illustrate the value of technical indicators like the MACD. It is very instructive, and when you factor in how the last 9 trading days of Feb. 2010 turned out, you see even more why it must be factored in. It is not a perfect indicator or an infallible "timing" signal. Yet as we learn about it and educate ourselves as to how it works, we can see how it can help us with our "exit" and "entrance" strategies as investors. Foreword: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a popular technical analysis tool which shows the relationship between two moving averages. The most popular MACD, which I use in the analysis below, subtracts the 26-day exponential moving average from the 12-day moving average. Then, we plot the nine-day moving average alongside the MACD. A bullish signal occurs when the MACD crosses above the nine-day moving average. Similarly, a bearish signal occurs when the MACD crosses below the nine-day moving average. 500 MACD Buy Signals: Many market technicians think the MACD is a good indicator for calling turning points on individual securities. If that's true, then a MACD signal on a whole slew of securities may be able to show a turning point for the general market. [This is why I, Marc, value the MACD for both the S&P 500 and the DJIA as well as the Nasdaq 100]
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Market Analysis & Insights
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Written by Marc Courtenay
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Saturday, 27 February 2010
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MACD, which stands for Moving Average Convergence / Divergence, is a technical indicator created by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s. MACD shows the difference between a fast and slow exponential moving average (EMA) of closing prices. Since it is based on moving averages, MACD is inherently a lagging indicator. MACD is a form of Absolute Price Oscillator (APO), meaning that it takes the difference of two price EMAs. An alternate form of price oscillator is the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) which is computed by dividing the difference between two moving averages of price by the longer moving average value. Here's a chart (1 year) of the Dow (DJIA) that shows the MACD Indicator below:
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Money Rumor Mill
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Written by By Jeff Clark, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report
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Saturday, 27 February 2010
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How many IMF officials does it take to change a light bulb? As you probably read, the International Monetary Fund announced they would proceed with selling the remaining 191.3 tonnes of gold from the 403.3 tonnes planned. The money is to be used for lending to poor countries. Lending implies the money will be repaid, which, in the case of the IMF, is a joke that isn’t funny. But that’s a topic for another day. The IMF stated that sales will be conducted in the open market, which is interesting because until now, gold has only been made available to central banks. While the IMF remains open to central banks buying some of the gold, sales will be conducted “in a phased manner over time” to avoid disruptions to the open market.
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