The Great Reflation Experiment
- Written by John Mauldin
- Sunday, 16 August 2009
The question we have been focused on for some time now is whether we end up with inflation, or deflation, and what that endgame looks like. It is one of the most important questions an investor must ask today, and getting the answer right is critical. This week, we have a guest writer who takes on the topic of the great experiment the Fed is now waging, which he calls The Great Reflation Experiment.[In light of the Fed's FOMC meeting results from last week, this article takes on new relevance and importance.
Add a comment
A Tale of Two Depressions
- Written by John Mauldin
- Tuesday, 23 June 2009
New findings:
- World industrial production continues to track closely the 1930s fall, with no clear signs of ‘green shoots'.
- World stock markets have rebounded a bit since March, and world trade has stabilized, but these are still following paths far below the ones they followed in the Great Depression.
- There are new charts for individual nations' industrial output. The big-4 EU nations divide north-south; today's German and British industrial output are closely tracking their rate of fall in the 1930s, while Italy and France are doing much worse.
Staying Rich in The New Normal and Bill Gross
- Written by John Mauldin
- Saturday, 06 June 2009
Last week I outlined three possible paths for the economy based upon the political choices we make about the budget deficits.
First, there is the benign path, where we more or less roll back the Bush tax cuts, and do not increase spending for new programs. The fiscal deficit falls into a manageable range. We repeat the Clinton years where spending is help below increase in revenue so that over time the budget gets balanced. While a large tax increase would have negative consequences for the overall economy, it is far better than the other two paths strictly from the perspective of growing the economy as much as possible. This path also has a very small probability.
Add a commentA Housing Update from John Mauldin
- Written by John Mauldin
- Saturday, 30 May 2009
If you read the headlines the last few days you would think that the housing market has turned. Mostly they read something like "Home Sales Rise 0.3%," and of course the reflexive bulls started talking about green shoots and a bottom in housing. And while someday we will actually have a bottom in housing, it will not be this month. It has been awhile since we have looked at the housing market, and it is time to review.
Add a comment
Faith-Based Economics
- Written by John Mauldin
- Monday, 18 May 2009
Why does government data need to be revised so often? Is it conspiracy, as some claim, or is it methodology?
Add a comment