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Market Analysis & Insights


Bulls Beware--Warning Signals Abound PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marc Courtenay   
Tuesday, 07 September 2010

According to today's Wall Street Journal," European banks may harbor more risky debt than the recent round of stress tests revealed, reviving fears about the true fiscal health of the euro zone."

As a result of the uncertainty, investors sold stocks in favor of "safe-haven assets" like Treasury notes and gold, with the widespread worry translating into a record high for the precious metal. Against this backdrop, the major market indexes snapped their four-session winning streak, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) giving up triple digits by the close.

There may be something else that is quite foreboding as today's lower volume sell-off had some analysts scratching their heads.

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Moving into Bonds: From Frying Pan to Fire PDF Print E-mail
Written by By David Galland and Kevin Brekke, Casey Research   
Saturday, 04 September 2010
The other day, I came across an article that said, while individuals may be moving their money out of equities, they have been moving into bond funds – and in a big way.


It’s called jumping from the frying fan into the fire.


Based on my experience as a co-founder of a mutual fund group, I can tell you that if there is one sure thing in this world, it’s that when investors rush en masse into an investment category, it is invariably at almost exactly the wrong time to do so. Is that the case with today’s rush into bonds?


To shed some light on that point, Casey Research Switzerland-based editor Kevin Brekke volunteered to look into the correlation between bond flows and performance. Here’s his report…

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The Best Time to Short Stocks PDF Print E-mail
Written by by Jeff Clark, The Growth Stock Wire   
Thursday, 02 September 2010
Now THAT was a good, old-fashioned bear spanking.

The short sellers never had a chance. The S&P 500 gapped up 20 points yesterday morning, never pulled back even one point, and then added 10 more by the close. Anyone who dared to be too aggressive on the short side of the market on Tuesday was tossed overboard on Wednesday and again today. Now they're stuck, flailing their arms in the water and begging for Mr. Market to toss them a life preserver.

Let's hope they're good swimmers.
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Is Anybody Bullish? Maybe Dividend Recipients? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marc Courtenay   
Tuesday, 31 August 2010

The Business Insider posted a story on Yahoo! Finance today that is somewhat surprising. They are quoting a Thomson Reuters analysis of the 30 largest fundamental hedge funds has found that these major players slashed their risk exposure to the stock market in the second quarter, by opting for defensive stocks such as dividend-payers or utilities, or by shifting away from cyclical industries such as materials and energy.

The article goes on to say, "You're not in that investment mindset of a few years ago any more, and a lot of risk has been taken off the table already," said Steve Goldman, senior market strategist at Weeden & Co in Greenwich, Connecticut. "The consumer is in dire straits, the economy's resilience has been disappointing, and everybody's bracing for it."

This of course isn't news to our readers, but we've been encouraging all of us to take note of how negative and "dire" the current financial news headlines have become---for some odd reason or motive. The point of the article quoted above is summarized in their own words below:

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Do P/E Ratios Still Matter with Stocks? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Marc Courtenay   
Monday, 30 August 2010

Bad news matters and so does good news, when it comes to the direction of stock prices. So do the intentions and operations of the market mover and "specialists", who are also called "market makers".

But what makes a stock "cheap" or "under-valued"? In the past it had something to do with the ratio between the current price of the stock and the earnings of the company that the stock represented.

An article on today's Yahoo! Finance site referred to an article in the Wall Street Journal titled, "The Decline of the P/E Ratio" and it makes some great points and begs some important questions.

 

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